Universities can work with government to lower immigration

The United Kingdom’s Immigration White Paper is just that – a white paper, not yet legislation. However, it serves as a stark warning to a sector that has long resisted aligning with government priorities.

While some hostility from the UK higher education sector towards the Conservative government may have been understandable, Labour has now aligned itself with the concerns of its traditional voters. With Reform UK as the only major alternative, universities may find themselves having to lie in the bed they have made.

Sector representatives often cite the loss of £3 billion (US$3.9 billion) in tuition income due to inflation as the cause for their financial predicament, but in reality, increased international tuition revenue between 2019 and 2024 more than compensated for that loss.

Universities’ overreliance on what they hoped would be a perpetual ‘gravy train’ of growing international student numbers has backfired – and now, the government has called time.

In light of the Immigration White Paper and its potential implications for financially strained universities, the sector and those who represent it should not oppose government at every turn, an approach that is likely to worsen the situation. Instead, universities should work with government to help reduce immigration, an aim that can be supported immediately and at low cost by helping international graduates transition into graduate-level roles back in their home countries.

Robust, representative and benchmarked non-EU graduate outcomes data to support this effort is readily available. By publicising successful graduate outcomes in countries such as China, India, Association of Southeast Asian Nations nations and Nigeria, universities can shift the narrative.

Doing so would win favour with the government and help undo some of the reputational damage already inflicted by the white paper, news of which is spreading rapidly through the international press.

An opportunity for a positive story

This is an opportunity to present a positive story: that UK graduates are globally successful, working for leading firms in consulting, finance, technology and more. And the data supports this claim.

Time is of the essence. A reduction in the Graduate Route to 18 months, combined with plans to double the qualifying period for UK settlement from five to 10 years, is already making headlines and discouraging international applications for the upcoming intake.

It’s worth remembering that the post-study work visa was only reintroduced in 2019. At the time, the then secretary of state for education, Gavin Williamson, wrote to the Office for Students (OfS), stating: “We will not be able to rest on our laurels … it is critical that international students receive a world-class experience.”

He encouraged the OfS to ensure international students gained the employability skills needed for success, whether in the UK or in their home countries.

Had the OfS acted on this guidance at the time, the Immigration White Paper might never have been necessary.

The narrative could have shifted away from post-study work towards the successful return of international graduates to meaningful careers back home. The UK would have had five years to position itself as the leading outcomes ‘destination’ for international students, differentiating itself from competitors like Australia, Canada and the United States.

The Home Office’s own statement reinforces this, noting that the intention behind the Graduate Route was “to support the economy”. It made no mention of enhancing the UK’s appeal as a study destination.

A recent study by the Policy Institute at King’s College London has provided insights into public opinion. Twenty-six percent of those polled said they want fewer overseas students to attend UK universities, and 58% of respondents say they would be happy for the number of international students in the UK to stay the same.

Is the Graduate Route on borrowed time?

This suggests the Graduate Route may be on borrowed time and that the present government appears increasingly reluctant to support policies that encourage international graduates to remain in the UK.

Jonathan Simons, partner and head of the education practice at Public First, made a telling observation in his analysis of the white paper: “The International Student Levy announcement comes at the end of three pages’ worth of analysis about how the Graduate Route doesn’t necessarily lead to graduate jobs, which all seems to be leading up to a punchline of ‘and that’s why we will restrict the GR [Graduate Route] visa to graduate-level jobs’, but in fact… no.”

He suggests this change may have been dropped at the last minute due to difficulties in defining what constitutes a “graduate job”. The vague language around the levy – terms like “exploring” and “further details will be set out in the budget” – suggests a rushed decision with little consensus across Whitehall. The same uncertainty likely applies to the Graduate Route’s 18-month length, which may yet be reduced and-or have further conditions attached.

Back in 2019, the Department for Education also told the OfS that it would be “critical to ensure the OfS makes public transparent data on the outcomes achieved by international students, including those studying wholly outside the UK, such as it does for domestic students”.

Higher compliance thresholds

The advice further stated that this data should guide the OfS in setting and monitoring compliance with its quality requirements. Which brings us to one of the most concerning elements of the white paper for vice-chancellors: the section on “Responsible Recruitment”. It outlines major reforms to how UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) enforces compliance among student sponsors, arguing that current thresholds are “too lenient” and open to “abuse and exploitation”.

At present, the Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) checks that institutions meet three key sponsorship criteria: a visa refusal rate below 10%, a course enrolment rate of at least 90% and a course completion rate of at least 85%.

The white paper proposes tightening all three thresholds by five percentage points. Data from the 2023 to 2024 BCA shows that 22 institutions would have failed at least one of the revised criteria. These institutions collectively sponsored around 49,000 students and saw about 400 visa refusals during the period.

The technical annexe of the white paper notes that five of these institutions may be unable to meet the new standards and would therefore face a suspension of their sponsors’ licence for at least a year. Given the current state of university finances, such sanctions would be catastrophic.

Philippa Pickford, director of regulation at the OfS, speaking to The Guardian, said: “Universities’ financial position is largely driven by a failure to recruit the anticipated levels of non-UK students. Recruitment levels for 2024 to 2025 are now projected to be about 21% lower than expected.”

This was before the white paper’s publication, which is likely to worsen the outlook. The sector is already reeling from the dependant ban on postgraduate-taught students introduced in January 2024 by the Conservative government.

Unless the sector takes urgent action to demonstrate that a UK degree offers a meaningful return on investment – with graduates securing strong employment outcomes both in the UK and globally – some institutions may not survive.

Making HE immigration neutral

Back in September 2023, we posed the question: Could a publicly funded university ‘go to the wall’? The underlying fragility of the system stems from the failure to make internationalisation sustainable and immigration neutral, which is vital for maintaining political support across the spectrum.

A viable way forward is to grow international student recruitment responsibly while ensuring institutions support graduates in securing successful careers in their home countries. This strengthens financial resilience, boosts the UK’s soft power and helps reduce long-term economic inequality in source markets, thus securing a future pipeline of students.

If the sector fails to make the internationalisation of higher education immigration neutral, the UK government may ultimately decide that even a publicly funded university is not “too big to fail”, a decision that could fundamentally reshape UK higher education as we know it.

Louise Nicol is the founder of alsocan and Asia Careers Group SDN BHD. Asia Careers Group assists universities in developing cost-effective employer engagement strategies and showcasing graduate outcomes at recruitment events.

This article is a commentary. Commentary articles are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of University World News.