Concerns raised over higher education completion rate

One out of every six secondary school graduates in Denmark, or 16%, has not completed a university education or higher professional competence-based education – erhvervskompetencegivende utdanning – by the time they are 30 years of age, according to a new analysis by Danish think tank DEA.

Published in March 2023 and authored by Signe Koch, Anne Fløe and Emma Wæge, the report (in Danish) is based on a survey of 38,456 secondary school graduates aged 30 in the period 2012-19.

This translates into approximately 5,000 young people each year, a significant proportion of whom have tried out higher education options, but for some reason or another have not completed their studies.

It indicates that approximately 20% of men in Denmark have not completed a higher education at 30 years of age compared to 12% of women.

Employment trends

Seventy four percent of students without higher education at 30 and not in education are employed with a salary. The corresponding percentage of those graduates having completed higher education at 30 and who are employed is 92%.

Most 30-year-olds without higher education and employed are mainly concentrated in the sectors of trade, and the health and social work sector.

Koch, a senior economist at DEA, told University World News that high school in Denmark is “meant to lead to higher education”.

She said since the demand for skilled employees is growing, “it is a problem that one-sixth hasn’t completed further education at the age of 30. They are employed in areas where it seems like a vocational education would have maybe been a better choice”.

The report finds that there is “huge potential” for more of those students completing secondary school to enter higher education.

Ambition to study further

The study found that as many as three out of four of the students who had not completed higher education at 30 years of age started at least one higher education course before their 30th birthday, a fact that suggests they have an ambition to achieve a higher education.

Specifically, 54% of those without a higher education by 30 years old tried to embark once upon higher education; 29% tried starting twice and 11% have tried starting three times. The majority of first attempts were at the bachelor degree level.

Senior Economist at DEA Signe Koch, who is one of the main authors of the report, told daily newspaper Berlingske that she is worried about the results because if the students had managed to complete secondary school, the assumption is that they would be able to complete higher education.

“Of course, problems can arise later in life, but as a point of departure there should be no hindrance for them to be able to complete higher education,” Koch said.

She observed that there are significant differences between the regions in Denmark, with Copenhagen having the lowest percentage of secondary school graduates not completing a higher education.

The DEA report also refers to a 2021 study by Statistics Denmark which identified a group of Danes without any employment-related education which included those with psychological problems, neglected childhoods, poor results from elementary school and parents without education. It was found that this group had difficulties in completing an education.

Potential to succeed

However, the DEA argues that there is also a large group of young people who fail to achieve a higher education at age 30 even if they have well-educated parents, good marks in elementary school, and have no psychological problems.

“What we can see here,” Koch said, “is that the young people have a potential to succeed in taking a higher education, but a significant number fail”. One reason for these figures, according to the DEA, is that young people are not getting sufficient counselling throughout the education system, and this is the reason for them dropping out of higher education.

“I simply think that while they are in secondary education and afterwards, they should have better counselling. With a little help they might manage to choose a little differently and open their eyes to other possibilities. Because we can see that a significant number [of those failing] have an ambition to embark on higher education but have not managed to complete it,” Koch said.

In 2019 men and women who had completed higher education earned almost DKK100,000 (US$14,500) more per annum than men and women without a higher education degree, the DEA analysis showed.

A comparative view

On average across OECD countries with available trend data, the share of 25- to 34-year-olds with a tertiary education degree – ie short-cycle tertiary, bachelor, masters or doctoral degree or equivalent – has increased from 27% in 2000 to 48% in 2021, according to the OECD’s Education at a Glance report. In Denmark it rose to 49%, which is the same as Sweden and which compares poorly with Norway (55%).

Some countries have a much higher rate – UK (57%), Ireland (63%), Japan, (65%), Canada (66%) and South Korea (69%) – and some have a much lower rate – like Germany (36%) and Italy (28%) – and some have a similar rate, such as France (50%) and the United States (51%).