Survey tracks pressure on universities to tap new markets

The need for diversification of international student markets has never been greater as government visa restrictions and unrealistic university targets for growth cause headaches for the major recruiting countries, according to some of the big guns of global higher education.

Away from the alarming headline-grabbing disruption to international students caused by the latest dictates from the United States White House and UK plans to reduce net migration, partly through the ban on dependants, universities are waking up to the dangers of over-reliance on getting the bulk of their foreign student intake from just a handful of source markets.

In the midst of so much upheaval for universities in major host countries, with many higher education institutions cutting staffing and reducing academic programmes in response to recent falls in international student recruitment, a webinar offering “real-time insights on global enrolment trends and the essentials for international higher education strategies” attracted hundreds of participants on 20 May 2025.

The event was hosted by Cara Skikne, head of communication and thought leadership at Studyportals, the Dutch-based global study choice platform offering to connect 50 million prospective students with nearly 4,000 higher education institutions teaching courses in English.

The panel of experts featured: Dr Fanta Aw, executive director and CEO of NAFSA (the Association of International Educators due to hold its annual conference in San Diego in the US from 27 to 30 May); Sara Pierson, managing director of English Language Teaching (ELT) at Oxford University Press in the United Kingdom; and Studyportals cofounder and CEO Edwin van Rest.

Global survey

The event followed the release of results from a global enrolment benchmark survey, which took a deep dive into bachelor and masters’ programme intake between January and March this year and received 240 responses from 48 countries.

The survey confirmed a fall in postgraduate enrolments in three of the ‘Big Four’ English-speaking destinations – the United States, Canada and Australia – as University World News reported earlier this month.

But one of the “most specular findings”, according to Van Rest, was the rebound in postgraduate recruitment to the UK, which dropped dramatically after a government ban on overseas masters students bringing dependants was introduced from January 2024.

This saw postgraduate-taught entrant enrolments to the UK from outside the European Union fall by 10% last year and plunged many UK universities into financial crisis because of over-reliance on high international tuition fees, as University World News reported back in March.

Van Rest said that compared to the first quarter of 2024, when international postgraduate enrolments fell by 23%, the figures in the new global survey report showed “a really strong recovery of plus 18% on postgraduate enrolment” for the UK overall, and 55% of UK higher education institutions surveyed reported a rise in postgraduate enrolments.

His only warning was uncertainty about the impact of the UK government’s recent immigration white paper, which threatens to cut the post-study Graduate (work) Route from two years to 18 months.

As for the other major challenges to recruiting international students, the new survey found 62% of universities said restrictive visa and government policies were causing “significant challenges”, and affordability was also raised as a growing concern, particularly in the UK.

Looking ahead, the global enrolment survey (which is the second organised by NAFSA, Studyportals and Oxford’s Test for English) asked institutions what they were expecting.

Outside of Australia, diversification is the most universally anticipated strategy, with 43% of institutions saying that diversification into new markets was extremely likely – despite most also anticipating budget cuts.

Skikne said that despite these looming budget cuts and constraints, the survey also recorded that a third of institutions “foresee setting more aggressive enrolment goals”, which she translated as “trying to do more with less”.

Building relationships

Aw told the webinar audience that diversification would mean different things for different institutions, but on top of “government restrictions on who’s allowed in”, she raised growing concerns over cost and affordability when moving into new source markets for international students.

“The biggest source areas are not congruent with government restrictions, and so how you reconcile that is the bigger question that a lot of these institutions will need to ask themselves.”

Aw warned that universities sometimes combined diversification with aggressive enrolment strategies and “unrealistic expectations”, and they needed to understand new markets and concerns about affordability and be prepared to offer scholarships and put in the time and effort and offer proper student support to have any hope of success.

“You have to establish relationships, you have to establish your brand, and you have to establish your credibility on the ground. So in wanting to diversify, the bigger question is when can you expect the yield?”

Be realistic

While alumni and AI can help diversification efforts, Aw warned universities that they need to “be realistic about how far you can go with diversification, particularly in the areas where you're seeing growth and you're seeing government restrictions that are also coming at the same time”.

Van Rest said while diversification is more important than ever because geopolitics and other challenges can shut down the big sending markets or heavily reduce them over a very short period of time, some of those diversity markets can face additional restrictions.

For example, they may not have the same visa success rates, which Van Rest pointed out has now become a criterion, or an enhanced criterion, for institutions in the UK to be licensed to attract international students.

He also warned that too often institutions (and governments) still think of a market in a country as “a monogamous group of students” and say: “We're diversifying. And let's shift these seven target countries to these nine” – and fail to see how diverse countries are in themselves.

Van Rest suggested: “The difference between one neighbourhood in Mumbai and another neighbourhood in, perhaps, Punjab is bigger than the difference between Indian students and Swiss students.

“So, it is important to understand the different segments of students and make sure you reach those that are a good fit for the institutions.”

Different visa refusal rates

Talking to University World News after the webinar, Mark Oven, business unit director for Europe, the Middle East, Africa and UK International at Studyportals, said the visa refusal rates for different countries can differ hugely, especially in the UK, and between those applying to do a bachelor versus a masters’ degree.

“Visa refusal rates in 2024 reveal a complex picture shaped not just by where students come from but also by the level of study they pursue.

“In Nepal, a rapidly growing recruitment market for the UK, only 1.3% of masters’ visa applications were refused, compared to a striking 10.9% for bachelor degrees.

“A similar pattern appears in Zambia, where rejection rates were 17.3% for undergraduates but just 6% for those applying to masters’ programmes.

“Conversely, Nigeria shows higher refusal rates at the masters’ level.

“The hope is that already resource-constrained universities can better support students through the visa process, rather than avoiding recruiting students from markets more likely to face visa denials,” he told University World News.

English language proficiency

Away from the challenges facing universities in the major host countries and their huge numbers of international students, often all coming from two or three countries, the survey also looked at the growing number of up-and-coming destinations hoping to become international higher education hubs.

Pierson said that data in the new survey confirmed that “English proficiency is a real issue for students entering their institutions, with one in 10 institutions finding it a significant issue”.

She stressed that English is a key requirement, not only for admission but also for success in the academic environment, success in the country for integration into the culture.

“So, for institutions thinking about how they make sure that students have the right skills coming into an institution, they need to think more broadly around the range of English language tests that they recognise.”

She said institutions should consider not only “going to the big names but thinking about some of the newer tests that are around and making sure that the tests that they’re selecting test the skills that the students are going to need when they land in the country or the institution”.

Pierson said this should include testing debating skills and how students summarise points effectively.

Van Rest said it is not just for students outside of the Anglophone market that English language skills are important, but also when it comes to delivering quality education.

“When measuring international student satisfaction across the world, we now see one of the growing concerns of students is the quality of English of the faculty in non-Anglophone destinations,” he noted.

Pierson agreed and told the webinar: “That’s often the big challenge for institutions because they often don't have academics who have expertise at teaching in English or teaching English.

“So, how they bring together those skill sets and train and support their lecturers in English, alongside their academic subject, is also an issue for institutions to think about,” she said.

Nic Mitchell is a UK-based freelance journalist and PR consultant specialising in European and international higher education. He blogs at www.delacourcommunications.com.