Warning on over-enrolment as Trump effect redirects students

Hong Kong education officials are concerned about the impact on teaching quality of a sudden surge in university enrolment driven by interest from Chinese students who might have chosen to study in the United States prior to recent policy developments in the US, particularly those under President Donald Trump.

Hong Kong’s Secretary for Education Christine Choi Yuk-lin said Hong Kong was experiencing a surge in international and mainland China student enrolment, driven by tighter US visa policies and geopolitical tensions. She said Hong Kong was also attracting top-tier academics from the United States.

In a series of media broadcast interviews at the weekend, Choi revealed that restrictive US policies under Trump on foreign student visas and fields of study (such as climate) created uncertainty and prompted many mainland Chinese students to opt for Hong Kong instead of the US.

At the same time, more Hong Kong students were reconsidering plans to study in America.

Choi told a local radio station on 26 April that Hong Kong’s universities had always been attractive to non-Hong Kong students “regardless of geopolitics”, but current tensions could mean more potential applicants from mainland China.

“With many uncertain factors in the United States, parents will have to consider other study locations,” she said.

She acknowledged in a TV interview that US restrictions on student visas created uncertainties for those planning to study in the US.

“Parents and students are understandably cautious, as sudden visa denials can disrupt years of academic planning. This has led many to explore alternative destinations [other than the US],” she said.

However, Choi warned Hong Kong universities that recruitment should be gradual to avoid worsening the student-teacher ratio.

US visa situation

According to reports earlier this month, more than 1,000 international students in the US have had their student visas revoked by the Trump administration, some without any reason being provided.

While many have reportedly been reinstated, families are jittery about future visa U-turns and general anti-Chinese sentiment in the US due to the tariff and technology wars, academics said.

Since Trump returned to the White House, more than 4,700 students have been deleted from a US immigration database, making them vulnerable to deportation.

Chinese students have accounted for 14% of 327 visa revocation reports collected thus far by the American Immigration Lawyers Association.

Professor Joshua Ka-ho Mok, provost and vice-president (academic and research) of Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, last year conducted research with Peking University surveying students from elite mainland universities.

He said the majority of survey respondents wished to go to the US for further study “because of the leading position of US institutions in the world”.

“But when it comes to the decision [whether or not] to go, they are affected by the impact of geopolitics and the worsening relationship between China and the US, so these elite students chose not to go to the US,” Mok told University World News.

Mok pointed to visa problems and fears about personal security in the US due to reports in international media.

“In many parts of the US, there were a lot of cases being reported of visas being denied, so this would have an impact on these students from the mainland when they want to make a decision on where to go to study,” Mok said.

Chinese authorities have already issued warnings to citizens, the latest on 9 April from China’s Education Ministry in Beijing, urging students to assess the risks involved in opting for the US, including China-related legislation in specific US states.

The warning cited a law recently passed in Ohio which “includes negative provisions related to China, imposing restrictions on educational exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and American universities” and reminded students considering studying in the US to conduct a safety risk assessment and enhance their awareness of risk prevention.

Hong Kong as a destination

Hong Kong is a sought-after destination for students from China. But Hong Kong maintains a cap on the number of mainland and international students admitted to its universities.

The cap was raised from 20% of the undergraduate student body in publicly funded universities to 40% at the start of the 2024 academic year, which began last September. There is no cap on postgraduate non-local students.

With the raising of the cap, the proportion of first-year, non-local undergraduates at Hong Kong’s public universities from the mainland increased to 75% in the 2024 to 2025 academic year, with numbers of students from other countries dropping.

Choi has urged institutions to raise their intake of non-local students gradually. “I hope institutions are taking an incremental approach, as we care about teaching quality. Students’ learning experience is also important,” she said.

“This is very much linked to the capacity of universities in Hong Kong – whether they can offer very good support to students,” explained Mok.

Private universities overshoot quotas

Mok pointed to his own university, one of Hong Kong’s private universities, where the quota for non-local students increased from 20% to 30% this academic year.

“We are very mindful that we have to make sure we have the capacity – including teaching staff, laboratory facilities, and dormitory facilities – so it really requires preparation,” he stated.

However, several private universities have already overshot their non-local student quotas agreed separately with the Hong Kong administration.

Choi said this week a warning letter had been sent to some institutions telling them to rectify the situation and warned that admitting more than their permitted quota could negatively affect their academic accreditation.

Six private institutions have approval from Hong Kong’s education authorities to admit mainland students to their undergraduate and postgraduate degree programmes subject to quotas.

This is set at 20% of total enrolment for Hong Kong Metropolitan University, Shue Yan University, and Hang Seng University, and at 10% for others, including the Hong Kong Chu Hai College of Higher Education, Tung Wah College and the Technological and Higher Education Institute.

However, according to statistics compiled by the Education Bureau for legislators, in the 2024 to 2025 academic year, mainland students at Chu Hai went over 62%, up from almost 43% in 2023 to 2024 and 21.6% in 2022 to 2023.

Shue Yan University also exceeded its limit, with mainland students accounting for 23.3% of 2024 to 2025 enrolment.

Choi said the universities had been alerted to the fact that this will be taken into account when Hong Kong’s Council for Accreditation of Academic and Vocational Qualifications “looks into the institutions’ academic and quality accreditation in its regular review”.

However, institutions would be given time to correct the imbalance. “We will not ask them to cut down the student numbers all at once, because the students are already studying there, and we can’t just expel them.

“Neither can we ask the institutions not to take in non-locals to their first-year courses, or else there could be a gap.”

More mainland, overseas scholars

Choi noted in another television interview on 27 April that more overseas academics were coming to Hong Kong to conduct research and that Hong Kong universities were hiring “top-notch” scholars from mainland China and elsewhere, pointing to Hong Kong’s “stable funding environment”.

Mainland scholars now exceed 40% of faculty and researchers at several of Hong Kong’s universities, according to recent statistics, rising to 50% at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Choi said that “world-renowned professors” from US institutions were relocating to Hong Kong.

While acknowledging current geopolitical sensitivities, she stressed Hong Kong’s institutions have adopted a pragmatic and low-key approach to facilitate these moves without attracting “unnecessary attention”.

Mok said large movements of academics to universities in Hong Kong were not yet evident and pointed to “psychological barriers” created by the Trump administration to deter research collaboration with China.

“Because of the psychological barriers and visa problems, I am sure international research and internationalisation will be affected,” he said.

“People are very worried about these kinds of barriers which will certainly affect research collaboration that brings not only research findings, but findings that are transferable to business and industry and may also affect future economic development [in China and Hong Kong].

“If you look at the whole situation from these particular angles, the impact of Trump is quite significant,” he said.