Drop in student visa applications to UK set to continue

The number of African students applying for international student visas to the United Kingdom (UK) dropped markedly after the British government’s ban on dependants took effect on 1 January 2024. Notably, the African countries with the highest number of dependant applications in 2023 also showed the highest decline in interest in 2024.

Experts say that, if the restrictions remain in place, the decline will continue, causing financial difficulties for universities in the UK.

The British government only grants dependant visas in the following cases:

• A government-sponsored student starting a course longer than six months.

• A full-time, postgraduate student in a course lasting nine months or longer.

• Courses that started on or after 1 January 2024: PhD or other doctoral students, or research-based higher degrees.

Dependants are husbands, wives or civil partners, unmarried partners, or a child younger than 18 years old (including those who were born in the UK during the student’s stay).

Widespread decline in demand

In 2024, applications from Nigeria and Ghana, traditionally the African countries with the highest number of international students in the UK, decreased by 50% and 45%, respectively, according to an analysis by the Canadian technology company ApplyBoard. In 2023-24, Nigeria had the highest dependant-to-main-applicant ratio of the international student population in the UK, namely 1.24. Ghana was in third place after Sri Lanka with a ratio of 0.78.

According to ApplyBoard, “The UK processed over 423,000 sponsored study visas for main applicant international students in 2024. This represents a 12% decline from the previous year and a 15% drop from the 2022 high point. While this drop was milder than student visa decreases seen in other destinations in 2024, it still accounts for over 50,000 fewer processed applications in a single year.”

Although the demand from other African countries also declined, the rate of decline was generally much smaller than that of the major student-sending countries, African and non-African, said Khaled El Hennawy, the associate vice president for the Middle East and Africa at ApplyBoard.

For example, 1,600 visas were issued to Egyptian students, 7% down from the previous year. Similarly, demand from Morocco decreased by 11%, resulting in only 1,100 visas being issued.

Trend will continue

The demand from South Africa and Zimbabwe decreased by 8%, resulting in 625 and 595 student visas being granted, respectively. The most modest decline was seen in Algeria, namely 3%. A total of 700 visas were granted in 2024. One country that did not fit the pattern is Kenya. The number of student visa applications increased by 28% in 2024 compared to 2023.

El Hennawy told University World News that, “There are plenty of reasons to think these trends will remain stable or grow in 2025 and beyond. First and foremost, we’ve already seen a much more positive message coming from the government towards international students, and we expect this to be sustained and reflected after the launch of the new UK International Education Strategy.

“Post-study work remains a top priority for international students, so continued stability in this area could help rebuild trust and drive long-term interest in key countries impacted by the dependants policy change, such as Nigeria and Ghana,” he said.

Where Kenya is concerned, El Hennawy said the country is “emerging as a key market for UK higher education … This growth signals increasing demand for UK education across East Africa, as students look for quality academic programmes and strong post-study work opportunities.”

More opportunities

Career aspirations and post-study work opportunities are significant factors driving the students to the UK, not the ability to bring dependants, he said. “With the demand for international education rising across Africa, Kenya’s student mobility trends point to new opportunities for international students.”

The demand from other African countries following Kenya’s example grew between 3% and 43%, but no country had more than 400 visa applications, El Hennawy said. These countries include Sudan, Zambia, Somalia, Sierra Leone, the Ivory Coast, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Several factors contribute

Helen Maxwell, the UK business development manager at NCC Education in London, warned that, if restrictions remain unchanged, the decline is likely to continue into 2025, posing financial challenges for UK universities that rely on international tuition fees.

“Beyond visa policies, the rising cost of living in the UK is another major deterrent. Higher visa financial requirements, skyrocketing accommodation costs, inflation and weaker local currencies have made studying in the UK significantly more expensive,” she told University World News.

“As a result, students are increasingly exploring alternative destinations like Canada, Germany and Ireland, where tuition and living costs are more manageable.”

She explained that, while Kenya’s 28% increase in applications could suggest it was an emerging market, countries with lower tendencies to bring dependants, such as Zimbabwe and Uganda, may also present growth opportunities.

For the UK to remain competitive, its universities and policymakers may need to introduce better financial support, scholarships, and affordable accommodation solutions to attract international students, Maxwell said.

Shopping for better options

In the case of Nigeria, the situation is exacerbated by a combination of visa restrictions and regulations, as well as the depreciation of the Nigerian naira against the British pound, according to David Babalola, the CEO of Dalewares Institute of Technology in Lagos and an NCC Education partner and placement agent.

A lack of “creativity and innovation” in the admission process used by universities that has remained “the same for ages with no desire to try a different way of doing things” was also to blame, he said.

Like Maxwell, Babalola anticipates that the downward trend “would definitely continue” in 2025, and with a negative impact on UK universities – including those that recruit in Nigeria, the country being among the top five UK sending countries globally.

“Let me also mention that African and Nigerian students seeking admission abroad will begin to shop for better, cheaper and less stringent destinations going forward,” he predicted.

Awareness, access are major challenges

Meanwhile, with visa refusal rates for African students wanting to study in Canada standing at 70% between 2019-23, a lack of awareness over what to do after a refusal and a lack of access to legal options are the two biggest challenges they face in appealing their cases.

On the other hand, Africans who are aware of available options often assume that legal representation is expensive and financially out of reach, thereby abandoning their right to appeal and, subsequently, their opportunity to study in a leading global destination.

While many of the refusals stem from avoidable errors, partly blamed on a lack of access to “clear structured guidance”, tackling the original refusal reasons is critical to the success of their applications, said Michael Pietrocarlo, the head of marketing at BorderPass, a Canadian and American migration consultancy.