UK’s HE ascendancy could be lost without investment

For thousands of years, ancient civilisations in Asia and the Middle East were the dominant forces in the world economy, accounting for the lion’s share of the world’s GDP. Unsurprisingly, they were also the cradle of higher learning during that millennia.

And yet, in a few hundred years and culminating at the turn of the twentieth century, those ancient eastern civilisations were largely displaced by western economies and technological advances that led to what has been termed the “Great Divergence”.

Source: Angus Maddison (2007), Contours of the World Economy I-2030AD, Oxford University Press.

The divergence was not permanent. The balance of the global economy started to shift again in the latter part of the 20th century, in what led to the “Great Convergence”. This convergence was accelerated with the 2008 global financial crisis, while Asian economies continued their trend of steady – albeit a bit slower –growth.

Although the economies of Europe and North America recovered slowly and unevenly post-2008, their ascendant position within global higher education solidified after World War II, remaining mostly unchanged. In fact, with the increasing ease at which people could travel and with the growth of higher incomes in Asian societies, Europe and North America became the preferred destination of millions of youth worldwide seeking higher education.

More than 2.9 million students from East Asia and the Pacific studied in the United States and the United Kingdom between 2013 to 2017.

However, over the past two decades, the Chinese and other East Asian governments have invested significantly in higher education and research in their own countries. This increased investment in research has been witnessed in China and Singapore, amounting to 2.15% and 2.17% of 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) respectively, compared to 1.66% in the UK.

Furthermore, Asian universities have begun to move up the global rankings of universities as well as to outspend OECD countries on research and development.

With the recent COVID-19 virus impacting the UK economy more significantly than any other in the developed world, according to the OECD, we may be seeing a century’s worth of UK higher education ascendancy within the global hierarchy of education experiencing an accelerated pace of erosion.

Simon Marginson, director of the Centre for Global Higher Education at the University of Oxford, has explained that “[w]hat we’re now going to see is a shift of part of the [student] traffic that was going into North America, Western Europe, the UK and Australia, going into other East Asian countries. That effect is likely to be permanent.”

The British Council predicts 14,000 fewer new enrolments from East Asia in the coming academic year 2020-21.

Anti-Asian sentiment

While many UK, US, Western European and Australian universities brace themselves for what may be a harsh year for international student mobility, their Asian counterparts stand ready to see a spike in enrolments, leading to further expansions of crucial subject areas.

These increases in international students and home students have been happening in these East Asian countries for several years.

Consequently, much of the anti-Asian sentiment that we are seeing in some Western countries towards Asian students and academics is driven by prejudice about the COVID-19 origin and the fear that the rise of Asian economies and societies has detrimentally impacted Western economies, trade and competitive advantage.

The xenophobic rhetoric of US President Donald Trump epitomises this perception, especially with its anti-China sentiment.

On 1 June, the US imposed a ban on some Chinese students and researchers from entering the US because they were reportedly stealing intellectual property. It is feared this policy will have a spill-over effect on Chinese scholars and students more generally. While it may seem to be a sensible approach, it discourages wider collaborations between universities in Western countries and East Asia.

It could also lead Chinese students to become more fearful about studying abroad. In the past weeks, we have seen an increase in the rhetoric between officials in China and Australia over claims that Chinese students in Australia have been subjected to racial attacks due to COVID-19’s link to China.

Increased investment

If US, UK and Australian universities want to remain attractive destinations for international students, they will need to persuade their governments to invest more in higher education in terms of research and education.

Jo Johnson, the UK’s former universities minister, has recently come out with a strong call for changes in immigration rules to allow for longer post-study work visas to help the UK look more attractive in a post COVID-19 and Brexit world.

However welcomed this move might be by the sector, it falls short of what is needed, nor does it recognise that the UK is bracing for a tough period in its economic history with record levels of unemployment.

The global financial crisis of 2008 accelerated great trade and economic convergence and signalled a decline in Western economies’ share of world GDP. However, we may witness the accelerated decline of our great universities with devastating long-term consequences unless we spend a larger share of GDP on higher education and research.

Universities asked the government to assist them in a very difficult time for both education and research, given the impact of COVID-19. However, the response was little more than stay calm and move ahead.

The level of government support for universities has decreased by 5% since 2012, while East Asian universities have continued to see increases in investment.

There needs to continue to be real conversations between universities, the government and society about what is at stake by not making universities a central investment plank of any recovery programme.

They must be at the centre of the response to COVID-19 and Brexit in terms of addressing health challenges and providing economic recovery through education and upskilling the labour market.

Our East Asian counterparts are not only being supported with higher percentages of investment in education and research but with absolute amounts. Universities must unite in making this case for the betterment of our society and economy.

Professor Nora Ann Colton is UCL pro-vice-provost (postgraduate education) and director of education at the UCL Institute of Ophthalmology and Moorfields Eye Hospital, United Kingdom.