Agents predict drop in Chinese students studying abroad

China’s international education industry is one of the sectors most affected by the coronavirus outbreak, according to a survey by the Beijing Overseas Study Service Association or BOSSA, an association of agents across China that recruits for universities abroad.

The survey, which provides the first snapshot of the possible impact of the virus outbreak on overseas student recruitment for the coming academic year, found that two-thirds of agencies surveyed were forecasting a decline in Chinese students going abroad this year. The membership of BOSSA and its affiliated association, the China Overseas Study Service Alliance (COSSA), accounts for some two-thirds of Chinese students recruited abroad, as the majority go through agents.

With China being the leading country of origin for students going abroad – sending 662,000 students in 2018 – the coronavirus, now also known as COVID-19, “is especially impacting the Chinese international education sector”, the BOSSA report released on 12 February said.

The epidemic in China, which saw its first cases in Wuhan, Hubei province in early December, was declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization in Geneva at the end of January. It has directly affected the college applications, visa applications and ‘in country exit and entry’, according to the survey of agents carried out in the second week of February.

Short-term programmes worst hit

Short-term summer programmes are considered the most impaired, with 83% of agencies believing summer camp recruitment and preparation has been affected in 2020. However, BOSSA notes that studying abroad “is a long-term plan and the overall trend of overseas enrolment will not change”. However, 64% of agencies believe students won’t change their original plans to study abroad.

“The majority of agents that are preparing for summer camps are feeling the most anxiety,” says BOSSA spokesperson and senior consultant based in Guangzhou, Jon Santangelo. “But in general agencies think [entry] this fall would be okay if things get back to normal next month and schedules will be pretty much the same as before. Everyone is just hoping and waiting,” Santangelo told University World News. “The worst case scenario is that fall entry will be affected.”

The majority of BOSSA members are education recruitment agents situated in Beijing. But others are in Shanghai, Guangdong, Shandong and other provinces. Almost three-quarters of agents reported that student consultations had dropped compared to previous years.

“The situation is unprecedented. Some 53% of agencies are consulting [with clients] online and a third over the telephone,” said Santangelo, quoting from the survey. “Only 3% of offices are open. I am in touch with agents and some are carrying on business as usual but the human-to-human or consulting one-to-one quality of business is still affected.”

Some agents are adopting a wait-and-see approach, playing close attention to official reports and communications with schools, universities and other partners “to endeavour a delay of applications and admissions deadlines”, the BOSSA report said.

Most pressing concern

But the most pressing concern for agents in China is that the “epidemic continues developing, and normal business cannot be restored in [the] long term”, according to BOSSA. Agents’ concern is that “enrolment in the fall, 2020, might be affected due to the exacerbation of the application process, visa application and exit and entry restrictions, causing students to eventually be needing to postpone this year’s study abroad plans”.

The delays in school terms – authorities in Hubei province on 13 February announced that offices would not reopen before 20 February while schools have postponed the start of term until further notice – has led to application processing problems experience by students, agencies are reporting. These include 35% of agents who say materials are incomplete because applications of postponed standardised tests, and 28% reporting incomplete materials due to the delayed school start.

The Ministry of Education announced on 27 January that English proficiency examinations for Chinese students to apply to foreign universities would be cancelled nationwide during February. The exams include the International English Language Testing System or IELTS, the Test of English as a Foreign Language or TOEFL, the Graduate Record Examination or GRE, and the Graduate Management Admission Test or GMAT.

China's Ministry of Education said at a press conference on 12 February that it was looking closely at developments in the epidemic to decide whether the gaokao, or national college entrance examinations, normally scheduled for June, should be postponed this year.

Impact of travel restrictions

Travel restrictions have also affected applications including visa processes, with some 40% of agents reporting ‘blocked travel’ or ‘blocked visa’ situations. Agents further noted that currently enrolled students, not just those applying to study abroad for the first time, are also affected.

Some 22% are seeing ‘blocked visa applications’ with 43% of agents reporting that students are affected by ‘blocked entry and exit’ from China – a reference to travel bans put in place by a number of countries, and suspension of many flights in and out of China.

Agents noted that some students had changed their originally planned destinations, with the destination countries most affected being the United States, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and Singapore.

Agents said one way to mitigate problems was to allow applications to be submitted first, resubmitting other materials once conditions allow, as well as providing for online admissions and interviews. But they also noted that Chinese students should be treated fairly and not face “discriminatory behaviour”.

BOSSA is directed by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Education, and its affiliate COSSA represents all larger-sized agencies outside of Beijing in provinces throughout China. Together, BOSSA and COSSA represent more than 300 Chinese study abroad agencies, education providers and organisations and over 1,500 certified individual counsellors.