The next big thing in HE country groupings?

A new day, a new acronym it seems. First we have had the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – countries, then the MINT – Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey – nations, CIVETS – Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa – and now most recently the TACTICS – Thailand, Argentina, Chile, Turkey, Iran, Colombia and Serbia – nations.

TACTICS have come to light in a recent analysis by Times Higher Education or THE. TACTICS nations are the emerging powerhouses in higher education, outperforming their BRICS counterparts in gross tertiary enrolment and citations.

Interestingly, despite each having moderate-low gross domestic product or GDP per capita of less than US$15,000, TACTICS countries' research output is growing strongly, each country has at least one university in the THE World University Rankings and participation in tertiary education is growing strongly.

It would appear that investments in tertiary education are aimed at positioning these nations for long-term competitiveness and prosperity, if not immediately, then down the track. Evidence backs this up. More broadly, analysis of 78 countries conducted by the London School of Economics and Political Science has found that doubling the number of universities in a region results in a 4.7% increase in GDP per capita in that area within five years.

Warning signs

Of course, one must be mindful that education is only one, albeit important, part of the solution. Other factors such as the business environment, the rule of law, macroeconomic parameters and, entrepreneurship culture all play a pivotal role.

There are warning signs in TACTICS countries with regard to issues such as corruption and transparency, sagging macroeconomic indicators, student access and opportunity, facilities for research, academic freedom and political uncertainty.

Looking more broadly at innovation as an outcome of higher education reveals interesting findings. Based on the Global Innovation Index of 2016, four of the seven TACTICS nations (approximately 60%) are ranked in the top half of the 128 countries in the index confirming their ascension, the best-placed being Turkey at 42nd place, with the weakest being Argentina in 81st place.

Similarly, of the five BRICS countries, 60% or three out of the five countries are in the top half of the index, the best performer being China at 25th place and the weakest being Brazil in 69th place. So what is striking is that it is the Chinese who are the outright leaders in innovation, followed to some extent by Russia (43rd place) while the rest of the BRICS are somewhat 'ho hum'.

The impressive performance of China is driven in large measure by its sustained investments in higher education and the broader parameters of innovation (productivity-enhancing investments, entrepreneurship and the like).

In the TACTICS nations, there is no really stellar performer in innovation as yet, but a number are slightly or somewhat above average. This suggests that there is still a way to go in terms of leadership in innovation performance and that there need to be investments in areas that are complementary to higher education.

TACTICS vs BRICS

However, in some ways the debate about TACTICS countries and new promising nations, while interesting, is a tad underwhelming and somewhat of an artificial construct. In the end, the future of TACTICS nations will rise and fall according to their individual circumstances, capabilities, priorities and sheer good fortune. There is nothing in particular that binds these countries together which could give rise to the notion that the “whole is greater than the sum of the parts”.

These nations are disparate culturally, economically, geographically (mostly) and politically. One could not really see a TACTICS trade bloc or innovation hub. It is possible that agreements between some individual nations could occur, but that does not seem especially likely.

This is different to the BRICS. There is a collective gravitas to BRICS embodying especially the sheer market size and dynamism of the two most populated nations on Earth, their complementarities – India in services and China in manufacturing, although China is beginning to make inroads more quickly in services than India is in manufacturing – while their combined GDPs are hefty, with Russia and Brazil (despite its recent struggles) no slouches either in the GDP stakes.

Moreover, BRICS nations are actively engaging in collective action in development finance, for example, and transport links.

As a final point, when considering emerging 'hotspots' it is worth keeping an eye on Sri Lanka. It is re-defining its economy towards a more knowledge-intensive one, is relatively free of the disputes that bedevilled it for so long and is increasingly a player in (outward) global tertiary mobility, which serves as an important long-term investment in knowledge.

Dr Anand Kulkarni is a consultant and principal adviser at Victoria University in Australia. Dr Kulkarni’s book on India and the Knowledge Economy, published by Springer, is expected at the end of 2017.