Addressing the dragon in the room

Every other day in the United States press there is a headline warning of an impending “China Crisis”, whereby the steady stream of Chinese students seeking US education will presumably dry up and universities which foolishly put all their eggs in the China basket will be left in the lurch, forced to consider shuttering in the face of huge budgetary deficits.

Are these scenarios likely? Doubtful. International students make up just 5% of the total student population in the US, so the losses to any one university or programme shouldn’t be catastrophic. But when you consider that Chinese students account for nearly a third of total international student enrolments, it points to a general complacency that persists in US higher education internationalisation strategy.

We are in a bubble, and eventually the growth from China will stall. Universities need to be proactive and strategic about diversifying now, so they can avoid taking an economic hit when the inevitable finally happens.

How did we end up here?

There are too many factors to list that have led to our current international enrolment predicament with China. But, if we distill all the data down, there are several ‘big’ events that stand out as having had the greatest impact.

First, there was a healthy Chinese economy and a strong middle-class that highly valued education, creating an inflated population of degree-seekers. Unfortunately, the Chinese education infrastructure just couldn’t accommodate the influx of students, so families began to look outside of China. Many saw a US diploma as global currency and were willing to make a sizeable investment to send their children overseas.

At the same time, in the US, statehouses across the country were slashing higher education budgets. The appeal of the Chinese student was powerful. The quick influx of students helped balance budgets previously in the red and the sheer size of the applicant pool meant that universities could easily meet enrolment quotas without stretching their recruitment budgets.

Between 2004 and 2014, Chinese student enrolments grew by nearly 400%.

But the percentage started to slip – the most recent Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, or SEVIS, data puts that growth rate at just 6.5% between 2015 and 2016, where it had been 13.3% the year before, and 14.9% the year before that. To be clear, these numbers still represent large numbers of students, but year over year growth rates are declining.

Why does diversification matter?

Internationalisation and diversification are often framed as fiscal decisions – the non-resident tuition fees international students pay can be a boon to universities. But that thinking is short-sighted. Undertaking these efforts should be looked at as a longer-term strategy for growth, and an opportunity to attract stronger academic prospects by widening the pool of applicants.

Even more important is the need for universities to better prepare students for the global workforce – where their colleagues and competitors are likely to be peers from around the world.

According to a study done recently by PricewaterhouseCoopers, global mobility will continue to rise, and employers will increasingly have demand for workers adept at navigating diverse perspectives in the workplace.

Looking ahead

So what steps should universities be taking to better diversify their internationalisation efforts?

• • Know who you are looking for, and where to find them. Figure out the types of students you are looking for – full-time, undergraduate, graduate – and recruit from markets where demographics and demand align. The Institute of International Education captures data on "International Students by Academic Level and Place of Origin.”
  
  
• • Narrow your search. Obviously budgets are tight, so be smart about how much you can spend and how much impact those dollars will have. To make the most of your marketing budget, identify your top five non-China target markets and focus investment in those key areas to generate awareness, rather than spreading scarce resources thinly across many markets.
  
  
• • Identify markets where the demographics are favourable and the competition is less fierce. For example, the Nigerian market is growing, but competition is extremely strong. Investment in traditional marketing and recruitment activities is expensive. An alternative might be India, where demographics are favourable, the market is also growing, and there are many key cities that are underrepresented by US institutions.
  
  
• • Understand your unique selling points, and communicate them clearly. International students have lots of options, so make sure you are differentiating your university from other institutions of similar profile. Rather than trying to be all things to everyone, determine your strongest selling points and work to refine and highlight those features in marketing and recruitment efforts.
  
  
• • Cultivate your alumni network. Former students who have returned to their home country are often your best ambassadors. For example, in a survey of our students, we learned that 15% of students listed ‘alumni’ as top influencers when selecting an institution. Investing in building out those alumni communities in strategic markets can go a long way to increase international enrolments.

The US will continue to be a destination for world-class education in the foreseeable future, but higher education institutions can no longer afford to take international student enrolments for granted.

By opening up new pathways for international students across the globe, and tailoring the education experience to the unique needs of these populations, the value of a US diploma will continue to drive international enrolments – from China and elsewhere.

David Stremba is the executive vice-president of business development for global education provider Navitas. Stremba’s career includes over a decade of experience within the international education sector including on-the-ground experience in the top three destination markets for international students, the USA, UK and Australia. Scott Spragg is the vice-president of marketing and recruitment for Navitas North America. Prior to joining Navitas, Spragg lived, studied and worked in China, holding a position at the Australian Embassy in Beijing, as well as founding one of the first foreign-owned media production companies in China.