GLOBAL: Young graduates drive economic advantage

Countries with a high proportion of young people in university-level education will have a global competitive advantage in the future, even if the overall population has not benefitted from higher education, according to the latest Education at a Glance report from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

"If you have a poorly qualified adult population and higher qualified young population, you have big growth potential. Those are the countries that are going to move forwards," said Andreas Schleicher of the OECD's education directorate presenting the just-released Education at a Glance 2010.

"Countries that risk getting behind in future is where the picture has not changed for the younger generation," said Schleicher, mentioning Greece, Turkey and Mexico.

On average across OECD countries, 35% of 25-34 year olds have completed tertiary education compared with 20% of 55-64 year olds.

Korea, Canada and Japan are in the lead for educating the younger generation at a high level along with the Russian Federation, all with more than half of 25-34 year olds with university qualifications.

"The winners in the last few years have been countries like Russia," Schleicher said. But he added that "countries are at an advantage if they can import higher skilled labour."

The OECD's annual report of education indicators surveys trends and changes in just over 40 industrialised economies and a number of 'partner' countries such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico. It concentrates on the economic impact of education.

According to the latest report, the number of individuals with tertiary education available to the labour market has increased by an average of 4.6% per year across all OECD countries.

"The total investment in human capital and the overall change in the supply of highly educated individuals during this period (1998-2008) is impressive," the report said.

"We are seeing a very dynamically-moving field for higher education, with rapid growth," said Schleicher.

In almost all countries 25-34 year olds have higher tertiary attainment levels than the generation about to leave the labour market (55-64 year olds).

On average across the OECD, 35% of the younger cohort has completed higher education compared to one in five of the oldest cohort. The average for the working population overall (25-64 year olds) is 28% with higher education.

"The high educational level of the work force at an early date not only affects overall attainment levels, it also gave these countries a head start in many high-skill areas. This first-mover advantage is likely to have been particularly important for innovations and adaptation of new technologies," the report said, referring in particular to the US and Japan which account for almost half of the developed world's tertiary educated individuals.

"Owing to the size of their populations and overall high tertiary attainment, both countries enjoyed high tertiary attainment levels before most other countries had started to expand their higher education systems," the report said.

"However the expansion of tertiary education in many countries has narrowed their advantage in terms both of overall attainment levels and the sheer number of individuals with tertiary education."

Countries like Ireland, Japan and Korea, which have high tertiary attainment levels, will continue to increase their advantage over time, the report maintains.

Others with high attainment levels such as Finland, Iceland, the US, Israel and Russia "will find that an increasing number of countries pass or move closer to their levels of tertiary attainment in the coming years," the report said.

But some countries will fall further behind, because the rate of growth in higher education levels among younger cohorts is not rising as fast as the more dynamic countries. This disadvantage is particularly marked in Austria, Germany and Brazil.

Rapid expansion of higher education has moved Korea into 4th place with one in 20 of the developed world's 200 million university educated individuals, after Germany with 6%, Japan with 15% and the US with 33%. Canada, France and the UK each have 5% of the developed world's tertiary-educated individuals.

Attainment levels have also risen because working populations have acquired higher qualifications after completing initial education.