The ongoing impact of past declines in the number of Chinese students has masked a rebound in enrolments by new international students in New Zealand's universities this year while increasing numbers of Chinese continue to flood into Australian universities.

For several years, New Zealand's eight universities have suffered the 'pipeline' effect of a dramatic downturn in Chinese enrolments that began about 2003-4. This year was no exception for many institutions, with five of the eight universities reporting that their start-of-year international student numbers had dropped 1-4% compared with the same time last year.

But two universities - Waikato and Canterbury - bucked the trend with increases of 7% and nearly 4% respectively. In addition, enrolments by new international students are understood to have increased at most universities.

Victoria University of Wellington, for example, reported an overall decline in international student numbers so far this year, but a 9% increase in new enrolments. Victoria's pro vice-chancellor (international) Professor Roberto Rabel said the university was also experiencing a 20% increase in applications for the second trimester, indicating the university's final figure could be close to that of 2008.

Within that growth, Rabel said there were positive trends. "For example, the number of international PhD students has risen by over 40% compared with the same time last year to reach almost 280."

The increase in new enrolments has been attributed in part to the low value of the New Zealand dollar, which is now worth US$0.55, down from about US$0.79 at this time last year. But universities have also worked hard to diversify their international student base in order to reduce their reliance on China as a source country.

Australia, however, has long been an attractive destination to students from China and last year they again comprised the largest group of international students, with nearly 52,000 of the 183,000 foreigners enrolled in higher education. The number of Chinese students increased by 5% in 2007 over the previous year and by a further 8% last year.

Overall international student enrolments grew by 5% because of a strong growth in commencements. Two source countries - China and India - made up more than 43% of all higher education enrolments, with the Chinese the most numerous and almost doubling those from India.

The international education export market was estimated to be worth more than A$15 billion (US$11.8 billion) to Australia last year - up nearly 24% on 2007. Some universities now generate a quarter to almost a half of their income from foreign student fees - a reliance considered highly dangerous should the market experience a decline.

That is possible should the global economic crisis continue to worsen but also because as Australia's competitors in the overseas student arena increase in number and in attractiveness to the Australia's major source countries.

* John Gerritsen is editor of NZ Education Review

john.gerritsen@uw-news.com

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