European academics are preparing to gather at a high-level conference to discuss the problems caused to higher education by a sharp decline in the European population. The debates at the European University Association conference come as the latest figures from the European Union statistical agency Eurostat confirm the number of young people in European countries is already shrinking and will get smaller.

Announcing that from 2015, births would start to be outnumbered by deaths across the EU for the first time since the industrial revolution, Eurostat warned that some countries would face sharp falls in numbers of citizens, coupled with a significant ageing of their population profiles.

The impact on higher education institutions is as yet unclear but the risk that countries may need to increase tertiary education participation rates within their populations to avoid a growth in redundant facilities will be discussed at the EUA conference.

Among the countries facing significant demographic declines, according to Eurostat, is Germany whose population is predicted to fall from 82 million today to 70 million in 2060, with the percentage of people aged 65 or more rising from 20.1% to 32.5%. Other shrinking countries include Poland, whose population would fall from 38 million to 31 million in 2060 (with over-65s rising from 13.5% to 36.2% of the populace); Romania (down from 21 million to 16 million); Hungary (10 million to 8 million) and the Czech Republic (10 million to 9 million).

Some other countries whose population size is predicted to remain stable will nonetheless face ageing profiles that will restrict the number of available students and young academics. These include Italy where the over-65s are projected to rise from 20.1% to 32.7% of the population by 2060; Spain where the increase is 16.6% to 32.3%; and France (whose population is expected to rise) 16.5% to 25.9%.

Britain is expected to have fewer problems with an increasing population being combined with a less steep increase in ageing - over 65s becoming 24.7% of the population - up from 16.1% now.

At the EUA's autumn conference at Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, from 23-25 October, the impact of these changes on how universities operate will be the key topic of discussions.

Demographic change, including ageing population, population movement and gender issues, will be debated alongside the need for universities to promote social justice, employability and competitiveness.

Keynote speakers will include Jan Willem Oosterwijk, president of Erasmus University; Georg Winckler, EUA president and rector of the University of Vienna, Austria; and Ronald Plasterk, the Dutch Minister of Education, Culture and Science.

Speaking to University World News David Livesey, Secretary-General of the League of European Research Universities (LERU) said: "Although there will be demographic decline, this would be attenuated by an increase in the participation rate."

But Livesey warned that this approach would bring with it a need to review the role of universities to ensure their teaching and research matched the needs of this wider proportion of the population that would be drawn into tertiary education.

"It's not in Europe's - or the world's - interest for there to be thousands of higher education institutions each aspiring to be Stanford," he said.

An EUA spokesman added: "Demographic changes - such as an ageing population - will indeed pose challenges to European universities. In the context of a Europe of knowledge based on the competitiveness of our skills, this will lead to a demand for re-skilling our populations and thus to more lifelong learning.

"These demographic issues will have to become the concern of universities as well as other higher education institutions; universities will no longer be able to take the relatively easy option of concentrating on bright and eager young people.

"They will need to serve all age groups and to adapt their curricula and teaching methods to the learning needs and methods of all generations. Moreover, another major challenge for universities will be renewing academic staff and, therefore, making academic careers more attractive. This will be particularly challenging given that global competition for talent is intensifying."

www.eua.be

keith.nuthall@uw-news.com




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